4107. European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast - Valid:

Fri 16 Nov 2012 06:00 to Sat 17 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 15 Nov 2012 19:39 Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS – Once again a cut-off west of Portugal moves east and phases with a deepening trough over the E/NE Atlantic.

DISCUSSION – … Portugal and parts of Spain ...

Yet another cut-off approaches the area of interest during the day. Well structured warm conveyor belt (WCB) taps into rich moisture of a (sub) tropical air mass and therefore an healthy precipitation shield is forecast to affect most of the W/S-Iberian Peninsula.

Given history of similar events in the past with minor activity of electrified DMC in a similar air mass, we kept the 50-% lightning area quite narrow. Weak lapse rates are forecast and embedded convection within the WCB is possible all day long and the main risk will be heavy rain. During the night however, mid-levels cool down from the west, which may increase CAPE in the graupel zone and electrified convection somewhat. An isolated tornado event can't be excluded along the W-coast of Portugal with significantly enhanced LL shear and surface based CAPE offshore/along the coast.

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Fonte (texto e imagem): Estofex